In this article, we asked real estate experts, analyzed where the market is heading now, what will happen to prices per square meter in Kyiv and other cities of Ukraine, to give you a balanced analysis for your investments. Risk factors (War, inflation, dollar exchange rate) Due to the war, which has been going on for 4 years in a row, our country has faced various problems
In this article, we asked real estate experts, analyzed where the market is heading now, what will happen to prices per square meter in Kyiv and other cities in Ukraine, to give you a balanced analysis for your investments.
Risk factors (War, inflation, dollar exchange rate)
Due to the war, which has been going on for 4 years in a row, our country has faced various problems that significantly affect the residential real estate market. These problems include: the dollar exchange rate, inflation, shelling, population outflow abroad, internal migration, lack of qualified workers, power outages, and even a decrease in the number of developers willing to build in such conditions.
That is, only these factors described by me above may seem completely sufficient to draw a preliminary conclusion – the real estate market (meaning the price per square meter) has definitely sunk or even “collapsed” and will probably fall even further.
However, the reality of the market, especially such a complex and important one as the real estate market, often turns out to be different, and our subjective expectations often do not coincide with the real picture. To prove this clearly in the long term, the experts who advised us on this issue give a simple comparison and draw attention to two countries where “war” has been a permanent state for decades, namely South Korea and Israel. These two small countries have been fighting since the fifties of the last century (the Korean War began in 1950, technically the war is still ongoing) and Israel, which was created as a state in 1948 and from the first days has been surrounded on all sides by enemies who constantly declare their desire for its complete destruction. What is the state of affairs with real estate prices? How has the price changed over the years when one country has a population of only 10 million people (Israel), and the other has more than 50 million (South Korea).
For our comparison example, let’s take the data on how the cost of a square meter in Seoul and Jerusalem changed during all the years of the war when the observation was conducted?
Source: Bank for International Settlements via fred.stlouisfed.org
The graph above shows the dynamics of price growth of almost +90 points in the real property price index in Israel according to data from 1994, official data from the Central Bureau of Statistics
Source: Official Bureau of Statistics of the State of Israel
The photo above shows the Israel Housing Price Index / Monthly (national) in relation to housing prices in Israel adjusted for inflation, where it is clearly visible that real estate is growing much faster than real inflation.
Source: South Korea House Price Index Chart since 1975, official data from the Bank for International Settlements via fred.stlouisfed.org
As the chart above shows, the South Korean housing price index has consistently surpassed its previous high, with a total increase of almost +100 points over the past 25 years.
And what about Ukraine itself, what trends are there now based on previous data? Everything is a little more complicated here, we really had a small decline at the beginning of the full-scale invasion and the lack of correct data for previous years, since accurate analytics in a warring country is problematic.
Data: Ukrainian State Statistics Service Chart: Ministry of Finance
Above is a graph of the growth in prices for primary housing in Ukraine by category: 1-, 2-, 3-room apartments
Data: Ukrainian State Statistics Service Chart: Ministry of Finance
The graph above shows the growth rate of secondary housing prices in Ukraine by category of 1-, 2-, and 3-room apartments. The growth stopped and there was a slight decline for only a few months in 2024, after which the graph went up again by several dozen percent.
That is, taking into account the adjustment for inflation and the growth of the exchange rate, these factors, in fact, together have a positive effect on the price and contribute to the inflow of new investments in real estate, both primary and secondary. Accordingly, demand is growing, but what about supply?
Supply and Demand: Why do new buildings and resale properties continue to rise in price and not fall?
It’s simple. At first, it might have seemed to all of us that demand logically decreased since many families moved abroad and, in general, few people buy during a war in a warring country. However, the graphs we showed above based on State Statistics Service data show the opposite.
The increase in prices indicates a growing demand and a corresponding decrease in supply (everything is being dismantled), and in fact, according to real estate experts, there is nothing surprising here. In parallel with the fact that many people left abroad, a large number of displaced persons and those whose housing was completely destroyed also arrived from the east. Investors who want to preserve and increase capital without keeping funds in currency and protecting them from inflation, invest in income-generating real estate, somewhere for rent, somewhere for sale in better times after the growth of inflation stops.
Along with stable demand for purchase, the supply of ready-made housing has significantly decreased since the beginning of the full-scale invasion and in some places continues to decrease further, because as is known, a large number of construction projects were stopped or the volume of ready-made housing put into operation was reduced with the beginning of the full-scale invasion.
What is the situation in the cities: Kyiv and Western Ukraine?
Potential investors who want to buy real estate often wonder which real estate is more profitable now in Kyiv or in western Ukraine, and here we also have statistics to understand real trends and forecasts for the future based on data from previous years.
These statistics will also be interesting to ordinary citizens who are waiting to buy the desired apartment for themselves on the primary or secondary market, including those considering buying Kyiv and other cities in the western part of Ukraine, where it still seems safer.
The photo above shows a graph of lun.ua statistics on the cost of a square meter of primary real estate in Kyiv.
The graph above shows the moment the war in Ukraine began in yellow (parallel line), and the red color (red trend line moving uphill) shows the general trend of the price per square meter increasing to $1,310 in 2026. Note that in 2022, after the invasion began and for some time after, the price was in the range of $1,000-$1,070 per meter in a new building.
According to the Lun service itself from its own analytics: “The cost of housing from developers in the capital has increased by 1% in dollars over the past six months. Demand is supported by the state mortgage program eOselya (a program for affordable housing with a mortgage at 3-7-9 percent).”
The photo above shows a graph of lun.ua statistics on the secondary market value per square meter in Kyiv.
The trend in the secondary housing market in Kyiv has also been growing over the past year and a half. As can be seen from the graph, the price of a square meter of secondary housing in May 2023 is $1,330, and as of 2026 it is $1,640 per meter in a one-room apartment. The increase of $300 per meter is significant and does not predict a decrease or “collapse” of prices that many are counting on due to shelling and the war in the country.
Now let’s look at the western cities of Ukraine, because the west is also hypothetically safer and more protected from military threats. Let’s start with the leader of the western regions, the city of Lviv.
The photo above shows a graph of lun.ua statistics on the cost of a square meter of primary housing in Lviv.
The average price of primary real estate in Lviv at the beginning of the war was $1,090 per square meter. After 4 years of full-scale invasion, the price increased to $1,310, i.e., as of 2026, prices for primary real estate in Lviv have completely aligned with Kyiv, where the price per square meter is also $1,310. Unlike before the war, when Lviv lost to Kyiv in the ranking of the most expensive housing.
Is the situation of the cost of square meters different on the secondary housing market of Lviv and Kyiv?
The photo above shows a graph of lun.ua statistics on the cost of a secondary square meter in Lviv.
As we can see, the cost of secondary real estate in Lviv and Kyiv has leveled out and is the same at $1,630 per sq m in Lviv and a similar $1,640 in the capital. According to the Lun service itself from its own analytics: “Apartment prices in Lviv continue to grow. At the beginning of December, the average cost of a 1-room apartment is $68,000, which is 5% more in dollars over the last six months.”
Conclusions: should you buy an apartment now or wait for a “lower” price?
As a conclusion, we can say that our expectations and desires will not always coincide with reality. Many people postpone buying real estate in 2026, waiting for better times, a collapse in prices, a drop in demand due to the war, but the numbers say otherwise. The real estate market in both the capital Kyiv and the west in Lviv showed a significant decline only in 2022, all the rest of the time the cost of a square meter of primary and secondary housing continues to grow. There are many reasons for this, the growing demand due to displaced people whose housing has been destroyed or occupied, state loans for purchase, a decrease in supply on the market, a smaller number of developers and the introduction of new housing. Therefore, if you are waiting for an answer to wait or buy now, then according to figures and statistics, the unequivocal answer is that it is better to buy now and not postpone for a long time, since the average growth is sometimes from 1 to 5% per six months.
